Category: Iran

Overview. Tensions have risen following the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in late November. The conservative Majlis ordered the government to up its nuclear activities and further reduce cooperation with international monitoring agencies. The US and Israel have openly moved military forces into the Gulf and the US Embassy in Baghdad has come under…

Overview. The assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh has once again raised regional tensions and indicates an Israeli (and probably Trump Administration) desire to complicate the regional landscape ahead of Trump’s departure. The expected and hoped-for win for Joe Biden was welcomed by many Iranians. The President Elect has recently written that he will re-join…

Overview. Iranians of all political persuasions and none wait for the outcome of the US elections to find out what (they assume) will be the trajectory of relations with America, and by extension, their economic fortunes. The reality is of course more complicated and quick reversal of economic and social woes is not likely, particularly…

Overview. Again, predictably, the Trump Administration failed to garner any credible support at the Security Council to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran (‘snapback’). Despite unilaterally insisting that member states are now obliged to enforce them, few will, representing a major diplomatic failure. While maximum pressure is not a diplomatic success, it continues to contribute (along…

Overview.  Not unsurprisingly, the US failed to win significant support for maintaining the UN conventional arms embargo against Iran (ending the embargo is envisaged in the 2015 JCPOA). Trump will now pursue sanctions snapback, which will further pit US allies against it and see Iran try to occupy the moral & diplomatic high ground.…… Read…

Overview.  Iran’s C19 reopening appeared to be premature as authorities walked back easing of restrictions in some areas. A US-Iran prisoner swap briefly excites ideas of first steps to talks, but this appears highly unlikely.  Iran will make mask-wearing mandatory in certain areas and allow virus-hit provinces to re-impose restrictions.…… Read the rest